Kids love dinosaurs.  They instilled fear millions of years ago, but today they're funny looking creatures.  Someday we will laugh at towers; but right now, they're a stick in the eye.  Good news, then: the industry won't be building many more towers.  Here's why:

·            Towers depend on co-location, but base stations need to be distributed in a community not concentrated.

·            In the early days of wireless deployment (1990s), a tall tower could throw a voice signal a long distance, but now data is taking over voice as the primary determinant of deployment.

·            Data requires cell sites to be closer to the user, not because of signal strength, but because of bandwidth.

·            "Towers" are going to get shorter and shorter and closer together as well.

·            And "towers" are going to have to go into residential neighborhoods, because that's where the greatest market is.

Someone forgot to tell the tower industry that 3G meant base stations on two–three story roofs and utility poles, not co-location on giant monopoles located miles from the user.  These are the signs of industry extinction:

·            Tower owners are demanding higher lease rates from their existing carrier tenants.  They cite a good reason: if we don't make more money, we'll die.

·            Tower companies are trying to charge for each little modification to each tenant's base station.  Unfortunately, a tower company's lease usually neglects to include "modifications."

·            Out of five top (publicly-held) tower companies, two have declared bankruptcy and another was de-listed from the NASDAQ.  These are not  healthy signs.

·            One of the companies previously declaring bankruptcy presented a new way of deployment at a "tower" conference.  Although it's been around along time, for tower companies this is a different kind of deployment: in-building distributed antenna systems (DAS).  After the presentation, Ted Kreines, AICP asked the company spokesman: "Why not deploy community-wide DAS?"  Answer: "Because we're in the tower business."

Unless you are holding a strategically located piece of farmland, the chances that a tower company will offer you a lease are limited.  Now, if you do have that piece of farmland, or a two-three story building, let Kreines & Kreines, Inc. show you how to negotiate your next lease.  (The photograph for example, is a cell site on a two-story building in California.  Can you see the antennas behind the lattice work?  That's called "concealment," not "stealth.")

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Kreines & Kreines, Inc.
58 Paseo Mirasol, Tiburon, CA 94920
Phone: (415) 435-9214
Fax: (415) 435-1522
e-mail: mail@planwireless.com